From Jokowi to Prabowo: Strategic Continuity in Indonesia–India Relations under Modi’s India
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https://doi.org/10.66871/trf-j.v1i2.015##semicolon##
Neoclassical Realism##common.commaListSeparator## Foreign Policy Continuity##common.commaListSeparator## Leadership Transition##common.commaListSeparator## Middle Power Diplomacy##common.commaListSeparator## Indo-Pacific Order##common.commaListSeparator## Indonesia–India Relations##common.commaListSeparator## President Prabowo##common.commaListSeparator## President Jokowi##common.commaListSeparator## Indonesia Foreign Policyसार
India and Indonesia occupy increasingly significant positions in the evolving Indo-Pacific strategic order. Yet, while much of the literature centers on major power rivalry, insufficient attention has been devoted to how leadership transitions within emerging middle powers affect the durability of bilateral strategic partnerships. This article examines Indonesia–India relations across the transition from President Joko Widodo to President Prabowo Subianto, situating this shift within the broader strategic trajectory of Narendra Modi’s India. It asks whether Indonesia’s change in leadership signals policy recalibration or reflects structural continuity in its engagement with India. Drawing on qualitative process tracing of official policy documents, joint statements, defence agreements, and elite policy narratives from 2014 to 2025, the article advances a neoclassical realist explanation of foreign policy continuity. It argues that Indonesia–India relations exhibit substantial strategic persistence despite domestic political transition. Rather than being primarily shaped by individual leadership preferences, bilateral alignment is sustained by converging systemic pressures in the Indo-Pacific, institutionalized defence and maritime cooperation frameworks, and shared middle-power aspirations for strategic autonomy within a rules-based regional order. Modi’s consolidation of India’s Act East and maritime strategies further stabilizes the structural environment within which Indonesia’s India policy operates. By demonstrating how systemic incentives condition—but do not eliminate—leadership agency, this study contributes to debates on foreign policy continuity, middle power diplomacy, and the resilience of strategic partnerships amid domestic political change in the Indo-Pacific.
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