Saudi Arabia and Iran: A Realist Analysis of Power Competition, Proxy Conflicts, and the Struggle for Regional Leadership in the Middle East (1979–2026)

Abstract

This article examines the long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran through the framework of realist international relations theory. The conflict is understood as a competition for regional dominance in a Middle East where no single power holds authority. Using the theoretical approaches of scholars like Mearsheimer and Waltz, the study looks at how both countries have tried to increase their power relative to each other. Their methods include involvement in proxy wars in Yemen and Syria, military expansion, and forming strategic alliances, particularly as American influence in the region has decreased. The analysis shows that while sectarian differences between Sunni and Shia Islam are often cited, these religious divisions are better understood as tools for political mobilization rather than the underlying cause of conflict. Iran's revolutionary ideology since 1979 and Saudi Arabia's recent assertive foreign policy under Vision 2030 are both explained as strategies to ensure national security and survival. Recent events, such as the fragile diplomatic agreement brokered by China in 2023 and renewed hostilities in 2025, support the realist prediction that competition will continue. The findings indicate that the region will likely remain unstable unless one state becomes clearly dominant.